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Wandalf the Gizzard 2485
This deck's sole goal: turn Frodo into a tank
This deck's sole purpose: Kill Smaug
That's right, this deck can complete Battle of Lake Town, and progression style at that. I could've just gone with a Dwarf swarm, but I wanted to take a different approach, and this deck satisfies that while still posting a respectable win rate.
The strategy is simple. You need a way to defend Smaug: enter Frodo. Arwen, Burning Brand/Song of Wisdom, and Fast Hitch will back him up. With Frodo's response, you can afford to engage Smaug every round (making questing easier), but you'll need some serious threat reduction.
Threating out is the only way I have ever lost Battle of Lake Town with this deck. Aragorn, Dwarven Tomb, Galadhrim's Greeting, and Elrond's Counsel is usually enough. Gandalf is crucial for attacking Smaug, but for threat reasons, you should wait until the final two/three rounds to play him.
Between Asfaloth, Light of Valinor, and Unexpected Courage, questing isn't too much of a problem. I routinely finish with zero damage on Lake Town. You still need a way to kill Smaug though . . .
This deck's fate rests solely in the wings of the Old Thrush objective. With Master of the Forge, Gleowine, and Ancient Mathom, you'll have a multitude of excess uniques to chuck at Smaug and lower his defense. Gandalf, Aragorn, Frodo, and Glorfindel can deal enough damage once the shields are down to get the job done. Shadow of the Past will ensure the Thrush sticks around.
So what would a model game look like? Well, Burning Brand needs to be dropped on Frodo ASAP; so BB, Song of Wisdom, and Master of the Forge are crucial in your opening hand. LoV and Arwen are very nice as well. Take Smaug engaged with you each round.
Use Aragorn, Glorfindel (when the threat raise from exhausting is worth the three willpower), and any readying effects to keep locations under control. I usually only quest with Frodo if he has two Fast Hitches.
Threat is so much more of a, well, threat than damage on Lake Town, so the minute you have everything online, head to stage three and let the showdown ensue. With the Old Thrush, it should only be two more rounds before Late Town is safe.
Well, I think that's all. Fifty-card, grade A dragon exterminator. If you have three core sets, add a third Dwarven Tomb and Unexpected Courage. If you only have one, sub in more Daeron's Runes. Oh, and always play your threat reduction cards AFTER you trigger Aragorn. Thanks for reading, folks! Have fun.