This deck beat Fire in the Night in solo using only one core set and cards from the Wilds of Rhovanion + Ered Mithrin cycle, up to and including Fire in the Night. I made three attempts, changing the deck slightly each time, and won on the third game with this list.
The deck plays much like Starter for Dale, except here I give Steward of Gondor and King of Dale to Brand son of Bain so that he can pay for leadership cards.
The strategy is to use Guardian of Esgaroth to defend Dagnir. In the early game you will probably have to let 3-4 attacks go undefended onto Hrogar's Hill while you build your board. Then, once you have a Guardian set up with Hauberk of Mail, Ancestral Armor, and Wild Stallion, he can defend Dagnir repeatedly with his 8 with 7 . Squire's Helm can also help him survive the early game, though I'd move it to another ally in the late game with a Long Lake Trader.
Try to get two of the Guardians set up with those three attachments, and then give one of them Self Preservation. Once you have that, the first one can defend Dagnir's planning phase attack. The second can then defend the combat phase attack and heal off any damage that may come from the +X attack shadow effect. If Dagnir gets an additional attack, chump it with a Snowbourn Scout. The scouts can also help to keep damage off the town in the early game.
Willpower comes from your heroes and the North Realm Lookout, who should get Map of Rhovanion and Bow of Yew to help kill the small orcs.
You need a little bit of luck regarding the side quests - it may be difficult if you reveal Douse the Flames early, but Sneak Attack + Gandalf can give you a willpower boost to see you through. Use his response to kill enemies or lower threat, depending on the board state. It's a good idea to try to avoid engaging the Mirkwood Patrol until there are no other enemies out, so use Gandalf to lower your threat and then kill it quickly.
I found that I decked myself quickly on the winning attempt, so perhaps sub in a Will of the West to keep cycling Gandalf in the late game. Adding Faramir can also help with willpower issues, but I wanted to give Thalion a run out.