Progression TLD Lore Spirit Combo

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Derived from
Progression TLD Lore Spirit Combo 2 1 0 3.0
Inspiration for
Progression TLD Lore Spirit Combo 0 0 0 5.0
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DunYoss 20

DunYoss has a newer deck inspired by this one: Progression TLD Lore Spirit Combo

This deck assumes playing Progression style, including incremental FAQ updates based on FAQ date versus publication date of each card. Under those assumptions, this deck's combo is valid through the end of the Kazad-Dum cycle, at which point both Beravor and Zigil Miner get nerfed. (Other cards used also have errata later on.)

==== SURVIVAL UNTIL COMBO TIME ====

While combos are fun, they only work if you can survive until they are ready. I always play with a partner, so there's your first and best line of defense. Make sure your partner knows his/her role and your goal. The other key thing is to be fast, which in this case means dig through your deck at top speed. If at all possible, you want Gléowine in your opening hand. Other cards you want early are A Burning Brand for Denethor to block nasty things, Unexpected Courage for Beravor to draw even more cards, and Gildor Inglorion to help you sift, especially if you didn't have Gleowine to start. Combine Gildor with Rivendell Minstrel to shuffle away things you don't need. Gildor also allows you to start using Zigil Miner for acceleration even before you're doing the combo. Use all card draw on yourself every turn if at all possible without dying. Having your threat go up doesn't matter as long as it stays below death. Similarly, having enemies and locations pile up doesn't matter as long as you can survive. If you can manage to draw an extra three cards every turn, you'll be in reach for the combo by about turn ten. Keep in mind your cost to play out the combo uses about four turns worth of income (5L+2L+2S+2S+1N), so do not overspend on non-combo pieces.

==== "G2M" combo ====

The combo is as follows (beware some mathematics). Unlimited money with Gildor Inglorion + Two Zigil Miner (valid until end of Kazad Dum cycle, FAQ v1.3)

Need: Beravor (pre-errata, unlimited use), Gléowine, Gildor Inglorion, Zigil Miner (pre-errata, two in play), Grim Resolve (in deck), Will of the West (pre-errata, one in deck, one in discard), Cost-6 payoff cards (Beorn or Brok Ironfist, three in deck)

Notations:

  • "draw 3" means use Beravor + Gleowine on self
  • "draw 2" means use Beravor on self
  • "draw 1" means use Gleowine on self
  • "miner" means activate Zigil Miner naming "six"
  • "reset" means play Grim Resolve followed by Will of the West and defines the end of each loop or sub-loop
  • B: Beorn or Brok (for Miner)
  • R: reset card we need to draw (Will, Grim)

=== COMBO DETAILS ===

In the deck loop we see permutations of: BBBRR (5! / (3! x 2!) = 120/(6x2) = 10)

  • Gildor sees top three, cases sorted by how may reset cards seen:
    • Case 2xR (3 of 10): BRRBB, RBRBB, RRBBB.
      • Put RR on top and swap R to hand, draw 2, miner, miner, reset
      • repeat main loop [+6$, partner draw 1]
  • Case 1xR (6 of 10): BBRBR, BBRRB, BRBBR, BRBBR, RBBRB, RBBBR.
    • Put BB on top and swap R to hand, miner, draw 3, reset
    • enter BBRR sub-loop [+0$]
  • Case 0xR (1 of 10): BBBRR.
    • Put BB on top and swap bottom B to hand, miner, draw 3, reset
    • enter BBRR sub-loop [+0$]
  • Sub-loop for 1xR and 0xR when deck is down to BBRR
    • Gildor sees either 2xR (BRRB, RBRB, RRBB) or 1xR (BBRR, BRBR, RBBR):
      • if 1xR swap R out for B, miner, draw 2, reset
        • repeat sub-loop [+0$, partner draw 1]
      • if 2xR swap R out for B put R on top, draw 1, miner, miner, reset
        • return to main loop [+6$, partner draw 2]

Each main loop gives either: gain six money (30%), or gain zero and enter subloops (70%). Subloops give either: gain six and return to main loop (50%), or gain zero and repeat subloop (50%). Each loop worst case gives net zero money and we can thus withstand an arbitrarily long string of "bad luck" before we find a payoff for increased money. On average, it will take five bad loops for each payoff loop of six money (average one money per loop). Also, every cycle gives free activation of any hero or ally that's not working the combo. Repeating a sufficiently large number of times is thus guaranteed to give an arbitrarily large amount of money for self and card draw for partner.

Expected Gain (after paying Grim+Will) per loop:

  • Payoff: 0.3P+0.7(0.5P+0.5(0.5P+0.5(...))) = 0.3P+0.7(P*(1/2+1/4+1/8+...)) = P
  • Loops: 0.31+0.7(2+3/2+4/4+5/8+...) = 6 (approximation by partial sums)
  • Payoff / Loops = P/6 = 1 resource per loop (on average)

==== COMBO PAYOFF CARDS ====

This section is to get you excited about what you get for pulling off the unlimited resource combo (which is complicated).

Grim Resolve unlimited character activations (examples below)

Threat manipulation:

Deck manipulation & Card draw

Give money to other heroes:

Healing & repair

Kill enemies:

Questing/Location manipulation

Encounter deck manipulation:

  • Denethor view entire encounter deck, cycle (but not reorder) it to any position you want
  • Born Aloft + dwarf ally + The End Comes: reshuffle the encounters to recover any lost Victory cards and/or get a new ordering for Denethor to reveal and cycle through, which done enough times effectively means never have anything in the encounter discard pile and put the encounter deck in any order you want every turn.
  • Out of the Wild (pre-errata) + Denethor to remove as many specific encounter cards as you like, reshuffle each time.

==== OPTIMAL SPEED ====

4 comments

Jul 22, 2021 Yodamanu 1

I have no idea what you do with all the maths but it seems as legit as cool (even if you may have killed the game in the process) :-)

Jul 22, 2021 DunYoss 20

Thank you for the kind words. Yes, this is very powerful and is one of the reasons many of these cards have "errata" against them to make them weaker. For example, after errata Beravor now works only once per turn and Zigil Miner can give at most two money per activation.

(Note that I'm still working on tweaking the deck around the edges, so this one you've commented on isn't the latest version. The newer versions do not change the core combo, just tweak for more effective early game play.)

Jul 22, 2021 Truck 819

DUDE.

Jul 22, 2021 DunYoss 20

Oh, I just noticed that using asterisk for multiplication in my math was activating italics instead. I've changed them to "x" for multiply so that it's more clear in my most recent version of this deck.