Progression TLD Lore Spirit Combo 8.0

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This deck assumes playing Progression style, including incremental FAQ updates based on FAQ date versus publication date of each card. Under those assumptions, this deck's combo is valid from when Zigil Miner shows up in Kazad-Dum through the end of the Kazad-Dum cycle, at which point both Beravor and Zigil Miner get nerfed. (Other cards used also have errata later on.) The "TLD" tag in the deck title shows that I'm building it for our upcoming quest into The Long Dark, but simple substitutions can walk it backward: Arwen Undómiel becomes Erebor Record Keeper (questing or extra Zigil Miner activation), Elrond's Counsel becomes The Galadhrim's Greeting, and Warden of Healing becomes Lore of Imladris. The End Comes doesn't have a perfect replacement, so just choose something you like from the Sideboard, maybe Longbeard Map-Maker to get back the Willpower boost lost from Elrond's Counsel.

"G2M" Combo

The combo is as follows (beware some mathematics). Unlimited money with Gildor Inglorion + Two Zigil Miner (valid until end of Kazad Dum cycle, FAQ v1.3)

Need:

• Beravor (pre-errata, unlimited use)
• Gléowine
• Gildor Inglorion
• Zigil Miner (pre-errata, two in play)
• Grim Resolve (in deck)
• Will of the West (pre-errata, one in deck, one in discard)
• Cost-6 payoff cards (Beorn or Brok Ironfist, three in deck)

Notations:

• "draw 3" means use Beravor + Gleowine on self
• "draw 2" means use Beravor on self
• "draw 1" means use Gleowine on self
• "miner" means activate Zigil Miner naming "six"
• "reset" means play Grim Resolve followed by Will of the West and defines the end of each loop or sub-loop
• B: Beorn or Brok (for Miner)
• R: reset card we need to draw (Will, Grim)

Combo Details

Gildor sees top three, cases below are sorted by how may reset cards seen. In the deck loop we see permutations of: BBBRR (5! / (3! x 2!) = 120/(6x2) = 10)

• Case 2xR (3 of 10): BRRBB, RBRBB, RRBBB.
  • Put RR on top and swap R to hand, draw 2, miner, miner, reset
  • repeat main loop [+6$, partner draw 1]
• Case 1xR (6 of 10): BBRBR, BBRRB, BRBBR, BRBBR, RBBRB, RBBBR.
  • Put BB on top and swap R to hand, miner, draw 3, reset
  • enter BBRR sub-loop [+0$]
• Case 0xR (1 of 10): BBBRR.
  • Put BB on top and swap bottom B to hand, miner, draw 3, reset
  • enter BBRR sub-loop [+0$]
• BBRR Sub-loop. Gildor sees either 2xR (BRRB, RBRB, RRBB) or 1xR (BBRR, BRBR, RBBR):
  • if 1xR swap R out for B, miner, draw 2, reset
  • repeat sub-loop [+0$, partner draw 1]
  • if 2xR swap R out for B put R on top, draw 1, miner, miner, reset
  • return to main loop [+6$, partner draw 2]

Each main loop gives either: gain six money (30%), or gain zero and enter subloops (70%). Subloops give either: gain six and return to main loop (50%), or gain zero and repeat subloop (50%). Each loop worst case gives net zero money and we can thus withstand an arbitrarily long string of "bad luck" before we find a payoff for increased money. On average, it will take five bad loops for each payoff loop of six money (average one money per loop). Also, every cycle gives free activation of any hero or ally that's not working the combo. Repeating a sufficiently large number of times is thus guaranteed to give an arbitrarily large amount of money for self and card draw for partner.

Expected Gain (after paying Grim+Will) per loop:

• Payoff: 0.3xP+0.7x(0.5xP+0.5x(0.5xP+0.5x(...))) = 0.3xP+0.7x(Px(1/2+1/4+1/8+...)) = P
• Loops: 0.3x1+0.7x(2+3/2+4/4+5/8+...) = 6 (approximation by partial sums)
• Payoff / Loops = P/6 = 1 resource per loop (on average)

Combo Exit

You now have unlimited money, but you're stuck in a loop. How do you get out? Well, wait until you hit a BBRR sub-loop's 2xR case. Follow the script for Gildor's look, but then draw 3 instead of 1 and only do a single miner activation, then reset. Draw 3, then Grim Resolve. Now you have unlimited money, all characters ready, an empty deck, and your discard is only Will of the West and Grim Resolve. This is where you want to be for the Payoff stage below.

Combo Payoff

Brain hurting yet? Well, if you made it this far, now you get to enjoy the fruits of our hard labor! This section is to get you excited about what you get for pulling off the unlimited resource combo (which is complicated). The basic process for most payoff cards is: play payoff card, play Will of the West, draw 3, play Grim Resolve, and repeat as much as desired.

Partner Payoff Process

If you have a third copy of Will of the West, then combo payoff cards can be part of your partner's deck. For example, my partner has the following cards that support the combo: Sneak Attack + Gandalf (so he can dump his own threat and I can use Elrond's Counsel instead of The Galadhrim's Greeting, which adds unlimited Willpower without adding another card to my deck), Horn of Gondor (so I can skip Parting Gifts and still transfer money), and Feint. If your partner wants to cycle an ally, he must have either Born Aloft and can only do this during his turn in the Planning phase, or Sneak Attack so that you can use your Born Aloft (unless you house rule that it's a shared Planning where everyone can play anything any time). When it's an Event (or other discard payoff), then you'll need to cycle their discard pile and redraw the cards for them.

First let's show how to draw unlimited cards for your partner:

• Will of the West on self
• Beravor on self
• Gléowine on partner
• Grim Resolve
• Repeat as desired

Now share your unlimited money with partner:

• Born Aloft on Erebor Hammersmith
• Activate Born Aloft
• Erebor Hammersmith to recover Born Aloft and trigger your partner's Horn of Gondor (pre-errata)
• Net result is you lost $2 (but you have unlimited so doesn't matter) and partner gained $1. Repeat until partner likewise has unlimited money on holder of the Horn (make sure that hero has all necessary resource icons). Note, you can also do this with Parting Gifts if you prefer (and thus avoid worry about resource icons on holder of Horn of Gondor as well as being able to do it at Action speed instead of Ally speed).

Finally, allow your partner to cycle payoff cards:

• Partner plays any number of payoff cards
• You play Will of the West on Partner using the normal Payoff process (Will: partner, Will: self, draw 3, Grim)
• Make your partner draw all cards in deck using the process above

Combo Payoff Cards

What payoff cards should you use? There are many to choose from and you probably don't have room for them all, but I've included many of them below. Note that your use of Grim Resolve at every loop means unlimited character activations for everyone. Event and ally-activation combos work any time ("Action speed" as I call it). Repeated plays of an ally only work during during the appropriate player's turn within the Planning phase ("Ally speed" as I call it).

Threat manipulation:

• The Galadhrim's Greeting everyone threat down
• Song of Eärendil + Wandering Took (pre-errata) absorb unlimited threat from your partner(s)
• Born Aloft + Gandalf self threat down, direct damage
• Elrond's Counsel self threat down, unlimited Willpower

Healing & repair

• Daughter of the Nimrodel heal heroes
• Warden of Healing heal characters
• Lore of Imladris heal characters
• Born Aloft + Miner of the Iron Hills remove negative Conditions
• Fortune or Fate revive dead hero
• Stand and Fight get all dead allies back (even off-color ones)

Combat & Enemy Manipulation:

• Feint no enemy can attack
• Hail of Stones kill all staged enemies during Quest phase
• Rain of Arrows kill all engaged enemies before they attack
• Blade Mastery unlimited attack/defense
• Born Aloft + Gandalf threat down, direct damage

Questing/Location manipulation

• Stand and Fight can get an ally into play instantly and Éowyn can get an ally into your discard instantly
• Born Aloft + Snowbourn Scout unlimited progress on locations
• The Riddermark's Finest unlimited progress on locations
• Stand and Fight + The Riddermark's Finest: same as above but at any time so that you never have to have any locations in play. (Activate horse, use Stand, Will, draw 3, Grim. Repeat.)
• Ravenhill Scout move progress tokens around
• Born Aloft + West Road Traveller swap active location
• Longbeard Map-Maker unlimited Willpower
• Elrond's Counsel self threat to zero, unlimited Willpower

Encounter deck manipulation:

• Denethor view entire encounter deck, cycle (but not reorder) it to any position you want
• Born Aloft + dwarf ally + The End Comes: reshuffle the encounters to recover any lost Victory cards and/or get a new ordering for Denethor to reveal and cycle through, which done enough times effectively means never have anything in the encounter discard pile and put the encounter deck in any order you want every turn. Getting victory cards back from the discard is important for getting best score as fast as possible. You don't want to be stuck waiting for the encounter deck to cycle.
• Out of the Wild (pre-errata) + Denethor to remove as many specific encounter cards as you like, reshuffle each time.

Survival Until Combo Time

While combos are fun, they only work if you can survive until they are ready. I always play with a partner, so there's your first and best line of defense. Make sure your partner knows his/her role and your goal. My partner's deck is Leadership/Tactics with heavy combat focus. If playing without a partner, this deck will struggle because it can't do combat. The other key thing is to be fast, which in this case means dig through your deck at top speed. If at all possible, you want Gléowine in your opening hand. Other cards you want early are A Burning Brand for Denethor to block nasty things, Unexpected Courage for Beravor to draw even more cards, and Gildor Inglorion to help you sift, especially if you didn't have Gleowine to start. Combine Gildor with Rivendell Minstrel to shuffle away things you don't need. Gildor also allows you to start using Zigil Miner for acceleration even before you're doing the combo. Also note that Grim Resolve is already great before the combo because as long as you have the pieces in play you get +3 cards and more miner money. I recommend that you use Will of the West immediately after each time you use Grim Resolve so that you can draw it again sooner. With a little luck, you can sometimes loop more than once a turn and accelerate to the full combo a few turns early. Use all card draw on yourself every turn if at all possible without dying. Having your threat go up doesn't matter as long as it stays below death. Similarly, having enemies and locations pile up doesn't matter as long as you can survive. If you can manage to draw an extra three cards every turn (plus some of the tricks you have), you'll be in reach for the combo by about turn eight. I've sometimes been able to get there on turn five. Keep in mind your cost to play out the combo uses about four turns worth of income (5L+2L+2S+2S+1N), so do not overspend on non-combo pieces until you're Gildor Mining through your deck.

Optimal Speed

It's hypothetically possible to combo as soon as turn three (the earliest we can have Gildor+Miner+Song of Kings) by getting impossibly lucky with always finding Grim Resolve, Will of the West, and at least one Brok/Beorn near the top of our deck when we reshuffle. You'd Gildor-mine, draw 2, Grim, Will, and (with luck) repeat over and over until you hit the bottom of the deck. Now you have an unlimited cycle going with just BRR in your deck, but zero money to let you transition to the full combo. Now use Gildor to swap B for Grim and order it BRB. Mine for six, which dumps your second Will of the West (but we have the third in hand still). Play second Zigil Miner and mine for six again (still onto Eowyn). We have zero Lo money and eight S/Le. Grim+Will and now the deck is BBRRR (in some order). We need to get lucky again and have RRR on top so that we can swap in to have the deck ordered: RRBBB. Draw 2, miner (Eowyn), miner (Beravor), play Gléowine, reset, and now the combo is in place. I'd love to hear about it if anyone actually manages to pull it off that fast. The best I've ever done in my playtesting is turn five.