Progression TLD Lore Spirit Combo

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DunYoss 54

This deck assumes playing Progression style, including incremental FAQ updates based on FAQ date versus publication date of each card. Under those assumptions, this deck's combo is valid from when Zigil Miner shows up in Kazad-Dum through the end of the Kazad-Dum cycle, at which point both Beravor and Zigil Miner get nerfed. (Other cards used also have errata later on.) The "TLD" tag in the deck title shows that I'm building it for our upcoming quest into The Long Dark, but simple substitutions can walk it backward: Arwen Undómiel becomes Erebor Record Keeper (questing or extra Zigil Miner activation), Elrond's Counsel becomes The Galadhrim's Greeting, and Warden of Healing becomes Lore of Imladris. The End Comes doesn't have a perfect replacement, so just choose something you like from the Sideboard, maybe Longbeard Map-Maker to get back the Willpower boost lost from Elrond's Counsel.

Introduction and Tutorial

My friend said that jumping right into the full combo was too complicated, so I'm adding this up front to help newer players (and maybe some older ones) get through it easier. Our goal is to find a way to exploit cards that have potential to be used more than once per turn in order to create an infinite loop. For example, Will of the West (pre-errata) allows us to reset our deck and if we have two or more copies then we can always have more cards to draw, assuming we can afford 1 each time. Several characters have activation abilities that can be used multiple times per turn, if we can find a way to ready them. Grim Resolve does this, but costs 5 to play. If we rely only on money from our Resource phase, we'll quickly run out. At this point in the Progression, there are only two cards that can make money outside the Resource phase: Horn of Gondor and Zigil Miner. The horn is good, but as far as I know can't actually loop to gain you money. As far as I can tell, we'd need some kind of "bouncing ally" loop that has a zero cost. That only leaves Zigil Miner, which can potentially generate up to $6 per use, but only if we have and "guess" a 6-cost card (Brok Ironfist or Beorn) in the top two cards of the deck. Happily, we have a card to help us win the guessing game every time: Gildor Inglorion not only lets us see the top three cards, he also lets us swap one out and arrange the resulting trio as we wish. What a guy! So now we have a potential way to make $6, which can pay for Will of the West and Grim Resolve so that we can do it all over again. However, we now find we lack a way to draw our two "reset" cards back into hand. Good thing Beravor is on our team!

Precursor Combo: "GM"

So with that background, we can put together a simpler, but still powerful, combo before we "turn it to 11" with the full combo. Let's assume we can find a way to get our deck to have only Grim Resolve, Will of the West, and Brok Ironfist in it, and that our discard has only Will of the West. We activate Gildor Inglorion and since there are only three cards in deck, we get to see all three of them. We put Brok Ironfist on the bottom and swap one of the other two to hand (doesn't matter which one, nor what we swap in), then use Beravor to draw the top two. Now only Brok Ironfist is remaining so we activate the Zigil Miner for $6 and Brok Ironfist goes to the discard. Now play Grim Resolve followed by Will of the West and we're back where we started, with nothing lost and nothing gained. However, note that just before we play Grim Resolve each time, we could activate other characters, like Denethor, so although we'd gain no money with each loop, we'd slowly reveal the entire encounter deck! What if we also have Gléowine? Well then our partner can draw a card for each loop, which is pretty nice, eh? Just this small combo is already pretty good and probably enough to win you the game. This was the combo I had in mind when I first built this deck, but then I thought, can we do better? It took quite a bit of puzzling to figure out, but the answer turns out to be: yes! Read on to find out how.

Building to the full combo

Since the most we can get from a single miner is $6 and we need to spend $6 for each loop, we need to find a way to get a second miner (or Erebor Record Keeper to re-use our one miner) involved. To have a second miner added, we'd need not just the last single card to be a six, but the last three cards to be sixes so that the first miner takes two and the second miner takes one, but we still have to include the two reset cards (Will of the West and Grim Resolve). Now we have a five card deck and Gildor Inglorion can only look at the top three. So at first I thought I was sunk and was tempted to give up and just use the "GM" combo that already felt pretty good. I guessed a bigger combo wouldn't work. But was there really no way? I finally had a moment of inspiration where I realized that while we can't guarantee that every loop will allow for two miners, we don't actually need that. All we need is to be sure we'll always get to use at least one miner (to pay for the reset loop), with some (perhaps small) chance to sometimes get a second miner activation. It took quite a bit more work from there, but I eventually solved the problem. Hopefully this introduction was enough to get you ready, but be warned that the full combo is fairly complicated.

The Full Combo: "GM2"

The combo is as follows (beware some mathematics). Unlimited money with Gildor Inglorion + Two Zigil Miner (valid until end of Kazad Dum cycle, FAQ v1.3)

Need:

Notations:

  • "draw 3" means use Beravor + Gleowine on self
  • "draw 2" means use Beravor on self
  • "draw 1" means use Gleowine on self
  • "miner" means activate Zigil Miner naming "six"
  • "reset" means play Grim Resolve followed by Will of the West and defines the end of each loop or sub-loop
  • B: Beorn or Brok (for Miner)
  • R: reset card we need to draw (Will, Grim)

Combo Details

Remember, our goal is to end up with three sixes on the bottom (notation: BBB), which means we need to end up with Will of the West and Grim Resolve on top (notation: RR). In my notation that looks like this: RRBBB (two reset cards on top [left] and three money cards on bottom [right]). Gildor Inglorion helps make this easier, but can't always make it happen, and we have to deal with all possible outcomes (called "permutations" in mathematics). Each time we reset, we'll get a new permutation of the five cards we're cycling through. There are ten possible permutations (calculated with factorials: 5!/(3!x2!) = 120/(6x2) = 10). Gildor sees only the top three cards, and I've sorted out the ten possible cases below by how may reset (R) cards he sees. If he sees both our reset cards, that's the "2xR" (two times R) case and that's the one we're hoping for because it means the two unseen cards are both money cards for the double mining stack.

Main loop. Activate Gildor Inglorion, do actions based on what's seen:

  • Case 2xR (3 of 10): BRRBB, RBRBB, RRBBB.
  • Case 1xR (6 of 10): BBRBR, BBRRB, BRBBR, BRBRB, RBBRB, RBBBR.
  • Case 0xR (1 of 10): BBBRR.
  • RRBB Sub-loop. Activate Gildor Inglorion, he sees one of two cases:
    • Case Sub-2xR (BRRB, RBRB, RRBB):
    • Swap R out for B put other R on top (deck: RBBB)
    • Gléowine self (draw 1, deck: BBB)
    • Zigil Miner for six twice (+$12, deck: empty)
    • Grim Resolve & Will of the West (-$6, deck: RRBBB shuffled)
    • Return to main loop (net gain: $6)
    • Case Sub-1xR (BBRR, BRBR, RBBR):
    • Swap R out for B (deck: BBBR)
    • Zigil Miner for six (+$6, deck: BR)
    • Beravor self (draw 2, deck: empty)
    • Grim Resolve & Will of the West (-$6, deck: RRBB shuffled)
    • repeat sub-loop (net gain: zero)

Each main loop gives either: gain six money (30%), or gain zero and enter subloops (70%). Subloops give either: gain six and return to main loop (50%), or gain zero and repeat subloop (50%). Each loop worst case gives net zero money and we can thus withstand an arbitrarily long string of "bad luck" before we find a payoff for increased money. On average, it will take five bad loops for each payoff loop of six money (average one money per loop). Repeating a sufficiently large number of times is thus guaranteed to give an arbitrarily large amount of money for each of your three heroes.

Expected Gain (after paying Grim+Will) per loop:

  • Payoff: 0.3xP+0.7x(0.5xP+0.5x(0.5xP+0.5x(...))) = 0.3xP+0.7x(Px(1/2+1/4+1/8+...)) = P
  • Loops: 0.3x1+0.7x(2+3/2+4/4+5/8+...) = 6 (approximation by partial sums)
  • Payoff / Loops = P/6 = 1 resource per loop (on average)

Combo Exit

You now have unlimited money, but you're stuck in a loop. How do you get out? Well, wait until you hit a sub-loop's 2xR case. Follow the script for Gildor's look, but then draw 3 instead of 1 and only do a single miner activation, then reset (deck: RRB shuffled). Draw 3, then Grim Resolve. Now you have unlimited money, all characters ready, an empty deck, and your discard is only Will of the West and Grim Resolve. This is where you want to be for the Payoff stage below.

Combo Payoff

Brain hurting yet? Well, if you made it this far, now you get to enjoy the fruits of our hard labor! The basic process for most payoff cards is: play payoff card, play Will of the West, draw 3, play Grim Resolve, and repeat as much as desired.

Combo Payoff Cards

What payoff cards should you use? There are many to choose from and you probably don't have room for them all, but I've included many of them below. Note that your use of Grim Resolve at every loop means unlimited character activations for everyone. Event and ally-activation combos work any time ("Action speed" as I call it). Repeated plays of an ally only work during during the appropriate player's turn within the Planning phase ("Ally speed" as I call it).

Threat manipulation:

Healing & repair

Combat & Enemy Manipulation:

Questing/Location manipulation

Encounter deck manipulation:

  • Denethor view entire encounter deck, cycle (but not reorder) it to any position you want
  • The End Comes + dwarf + Born Aloft: reshuffle the encounters to recover any lost Victory cards and/or get a new ordering for Denethor to reveal and cycle through, which done enough times effectively means never have anything in the encounter discard pile and put the encounter deck in any order you want every turn. Getting victory cards back from the discard is important for getting best score as fast as possible. You don't want to be stuck waiting for the encounter deck to cycle.
  • Out of the Wild (pre-errata) + Denethor to remove as many specific encounter cards as you like, reshuffle each time.

Partner Payoff Process

If you have a third copy of Will of the West, then combo payoff cards can be part of your partner's deck. If your partner wants to cycle an ally, he must have either Born Aloft and can only do this during his turn in the Planning phase, or Sneak Attack so that you can use your Born Aloft (third option would be house rule that it's a shared Planning where everyone can play anything any time). When it's an Event (or other discard payoff), then you'll need to cycle their discard pile and redraw the cards for them.

First let's show how to draw unlimited cards for your partner:

Now share your unlimited money with partner:

  • Easiest is just Parting Gifts once to each of your allied heroes
  • Alternately, if your partner has Horn of Gondor:
  • Parting Gifts is better but costs you a card slot in your deck. Horn of Gondor could save you a deck slot but only works if it is in play during your Planning turn where the combo happens, or wait until the next round.

Finally, allow your partner to cycle payoff cards:

  • Partner plays any number of payoff cards
  • You play Will of the West on Partner using the normal Payoff process (Will: partner, Will: self, draw 3, Grim)
  • Make your partner draw all cards in deck using the process above

Survival Until Combo Time

While combos are fun, they only work if you can survive until they are ready. I always play with a partner, so there's your first and best line of defense. Make sure your partner knows his/her role and your goal. My partner's deck is Leadership/Tactics with heavy combat focus. If playing without a partner, this deck will struggle because it can't do combat. The other key thing is to be fast, which in this case means dig through your deck at top speed. If at all possible, you want Gildor Inglorion and a Zigil Miner in your opening hand. Other cards you want early are Gléowine and/or Unexpected Courage (for Beravor) to draw more cards. You generally want to save your activations for the end of Combat and save Gildor for last. Combine Gildor with Rivendell Minstrel to shuffle away things you don't need. Gildor also allows you to start using Zigil Miner for acceleration even before you're doing the combo. Grim Resolve is already great before the combo because as long as you have the pieces in play you get +3 cards and more miner money. I recommend that you use Will of the West immediately after each time you use Grim Resolve so that you can draw it again sooner. With a little luck, you can sometimes loop more than once a turn and accelerate to the full combo a few turns early. Use all card draw on yourself every turn if at all possible without dying. It's generally better to hold back Beravor for card draw even if it means raising threat or taking some damage. Having enemies and locations pile up doesn't matter as long as you can survive. If things go well, you'll be in reach for the combo by about turn eight. I've sometimes been able to get there on turn five in playtesting, but the encounter deck can certainly slow things down. Keep in mind your cost to play out the combo uses about four turns worth of income (5+2+2+2+1), so do not overspend on non-combo pieces until you're Gildor Mining through your deck.

Optimal Speed

It's hypothetically possible to combo as soon as turn three (the earliest we can have Gildor+Miner+Song of Kings). Activate Gildor-mine to pay for a second Zigil Miner and activate that too. Play Grim Resolve & Will of the West and get lucky again for another double miner, one of which goes on Beravor to get Gléowine into play. Now we have what's needed to draw the whole deck by getting impossibly lucky with always finding Grim Resolve, Will of the West, and at least one Brok/Beorn near the top of our deck when we reshuffle. Each cycle you draw 3, Gildor-mine (double), reset, over and over getting lucky every time until you hit the bottom of the deck. I'd love to hear about it if anyone actually manages to pull it off that fast. The best I've ever done in my playtesting is turn five.

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